As researchers (or otherwise) we all make predictions about what happens next. Sometimes we keep those to ourselves, sometimes we share with our friends and colleagues and sometimes we share it with the world through media.
Of course, share with your friends and colleagues is one thing, but sharing with a much bigger audience is another matter altogether… then you have to think about credibility at all levels (personal, scientific, group, institutional…etc), couple that to decision/policy making and politics then its a whole other ball game.
Recently came across an article in the-scientist, which talks about these issues. Couple of excerpts from the article.
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“Of course, scientists have a strong incentive to make bold predictions—namely, to obtain funding, influence, and high-profile publications. But while few will be disappointed when worst-case forecasts fail to materialize, unfulfilled predictions—of which we’re seeing more and more—can be a blow for patients, policy makers, and for the reputation of science itself.”
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“..“soundbite” media culture that demands uncomplicated, definitive, and sensational statements plays a significant role. “It’s [the media] who put the most pressure on scientists to make predictions,” he says. And in a radio or TV interview that allows perhaps only 10 or 20 seconds for an answer, “it’s very easy then to inadvertently mislead.”
But it might also pay scientists—financially and politically—to go along with such demands, and to indulge in what Joan Haran, Cesagen Research Fellow at Cardiff University, UK, diplomatically calls “discursive overbidding,” whereby they talk up the potential value of work for which they seek the support of funds, changes in legislation or public approval.”
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The article also includes useful tips on how to predict responsibly
1. Avoid simple timelines
2. Learn from history
3. State the caveats
4. Remember what you don’t know
More of the article here: [The Link]
